My Bets

THIS WEEK’S BETS

Wednesday, April 23, 2014

Aqueduct, Race 5:      $15 Win 2

Aqueduct, Race 6:      $20 Win 5

Aqueduct, Race 8:      $15 Win 5

(Week’s Wagers: $50)
(Week’s Winnings: $0)

 

 

HISTORY

Record for 2014 – as of April 20th

Bets Last Week: $419.00
Winning Payouts: $725.75

Weekly Win/Loss: +$306.75

2014 Bankroll: $2,009.00 (+$1,009.00)


Final 2013 Bankroll: $1,406.20 (+$406.20)

Final 2012 Bankroll: $2,744.75 (+1,744.75)

24 comments

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  1. Steve

    Wow, that’s a fantastic call on Heir to the Storm!

  2. Peter

    David, Do you like anything today 11/6/13 ? I’m heading out soon and plan on stopping by OTB.. I would feel alot more confident knowing your opinion. Thanks Peter

    1. David Aragona

      I didn’t get a chance to do much proper handicapping, but I was interested in Demon’s Deputy in the fourth race. I’ve been following him recently and I think it’s an appropriate spot with plenty of pace.

  3. newshoes4u

    Bravo for your selections today!!!

  4. Steve

    Yes, a simply awesome display of handicapping David

  5. David Aragona

    Thanks, guys!

  6. Steve

    Another great day! I guess you were rooting against Downtown Hottie in that photo lol

  7. Peter

    Hey David, What would be your best 2 horse parley at Aqueduct today? Is there a pick 3 in Oaklawn’s 8th,9th and 10th. Thanks, Peter

    1. David Aragona

      Yes, there is a Pick-3 at Oaklawn. I’m still sorting out how I’d like to go about playing my Aqueduct opinions. Of the horses I picked at Aqueduct, I think the most likely winner is Alpaca Fina in the stakes.

      1. Peter

        Thanks David, Have a great day!!

  8. Mike

    If you use a sound money management system, you can make alot of $$. Your selections are very good,but your money management system is flawed.

    1. David Aragona

      Care to elaborate?

      I should clarify: The wagers posted on this page are merely a medium through which I express my opinions. That is, I don’t actually play every race exactly as posted above, nor do I restrict myself to win and exacta wagers in my personal wagering.

  9. Mike

    I was going by what you post as wagers because that’s what you post as win/loss in your summation .
    I see your win% and type of odds most of your picks offer(on the high end),which is good. If you apply a $ management plan that would make you cover for previous lost wagers, you will keep building your bankroll every time you get another winner. Set a base amount to win every time you get a win, and bet accordingly. You would have to calculate how much to bet based on the near post odds to meet your goal. If the pick loses, add that lost bet to your set goal and calculate your next bet on the new amount, and so on until you get a winner, meet your goal, recouped all lost bets plus goal, then start over again. This way you keep building your bankroll.

    1. David Aragona

      The reason that I post my picks as wagers is because I find that the typical format most handicappers use (a series of numbers, 1-2-3-4, etc.) is fairly dry. I’m someone who likes to be right and make it count as often as I can, which, for me, means keying in on just a handful of horses each day that I see as good opportunities. Obviously I’m going to be wrong sometimes and have off days and weeks, but we all have to go through that from time to time.

  10. newshoes4u

    Sorry Mike but that plan is goofy!!! A player doesn’t press off of losers to recoup. Money Management is accomplished by raising the base wager off of winnings…. As an example, I bet lots of sports.. My base bet is 3% of my bankroll… As the bankroll grows so does my base wager…

    While I’m here, bravo to David for looking to pick just winners (and a few EX’s) and NOT listing 3/4 horses per race. Haha when I’m in a mood, I’ll blast the guys who post at DANONYMOUS RACING because all of the guests handicappers list 3/4 horses for EVERY RACE.

    The only flaw I see in David’s selections are the real short horses he’ll play… Like yesterdays horse who was 4/5 in the morning line… For rolling bets fine but for a straight play, NO!!

    Here’s to more winners today!!

    1. David Aragona

      Thanks. As for the first race yesterday, I agree. I wanted to call attention to the horse since I had previously written about her being better than she looked, but she was a horrible bet at 2-5.

  11. Mike

    You are missing my point totally. You can’t compare sports betting to pari mutual either. The $$ management plan I explained is mathematically sound, and is based on bankroll percentage. It really is very simple and works. It enables you to build not press losers. What’s “goofy” is your lack of understanding. I elaborated as you asked,I suggest mabey taking a closer look. Only use horses going off 5-1 or better,which a lot of yours do. Example. Set base win amount 100. Horse off 5-1, divide 100 by 5-1 which is a $20 bet. If it loses, add the 20 to the base amount, now your base is 120 for your next bet. When you get a winner, you will recoup all previous lost bets, plus build your bankroll by your base amount. If you apply your 3% rule you can also increase your base amount. The key is being able to keep a decent win% of horses winning at 5-1 or better. That does not seem to be a problem for you.

  12. newshoes4u

    Ok, math me this… With a $100 base, If David loses 10 in a row at 5-1 or more…. how much is his next bet?

  13. David Aragona

    I agree, newshoes. Relying on your own winning percentage or ROI as a model for how you wager is a very dangerous thing to do. I know I’m good at what I do, but like everyone, I’m susceptible to lapses in judgment from time to time.

    And Mike, I should better explain. I think you’re missing the point of all this for me. I’m not trying to make a living through gambling for the same reason that I’m not looking to sell my picks. For me, wagering is a personal endeavor that rewards me when I’m right and stings me when I’m wrong. I’m betting on my own opinions because I think they’re good, but I’m not relying on myself to be right most of the time or trying to sell that notion to someone else.

    My enjoyment of this sport is not derived from the act of gambling–I often find it quite stressful. What I do enjoy is watching races, developing opinions, sharing my insights, and having healthy debates with other people who are knowledgeable and really care.

    1. Mike

      I understand. I do enjoy your opinions and selections. I do play to make money, and I was explaining a way in which I do it.

  14. Mike

    I not a math teacher, but it does take 2nd grade math level to figure it out. Let’s just say all 10 losers in a row were 5-1 for the example. 100 base to start, 100 divided by 5 equals 20. So you bet 20 win. If the horse won &pays 12.00 you get back 120 and you made your base of 100 profit. Then you start at 100 for the next bet. If it lost, you add the 20 lost to the 100. Your new base is 120. So the next horse at 5-1 you divide 120 by 5 which is 24. So you bet 24 win. If it lost you add 24 and the new base is 144. And so on until you win. You can do the math your self. But when you get a winner you get all previous loses back plus another 100. You build accordingly . I suggest setting your base amount at 5% of your roll and increase your base every time you build 2k on to it.

  15. newshoes4u

    Mike I understand the math… I wanted you to take it up 10 times with a $100 base.. just guessing but you probably didn’t want to say how much that is…well the tenth bet would be $610. That is a just another form of the Martingale system which will break everybody… About the time there are 30 losers in a row, the 5-1 shot will now be 1-9….

    David, nice picks again today!!!

  16. Maxwell Lau (@MoneyTalksfrHK)

    newshoes4u is correct! This is not a fixed odds system, the more u put in, the less ROI is. The odds shifts quickly after a couple successes or failures if there were a couple bankroll players. eg TimeformUS was quite successful last month & I saw ML 8-1 turned 2-1 after a couple days of hits. David, maybe I helped solved your mystery of My Sarannah Belle going off at 2-1 – someone lost plenty on All Luv Me & pounded MSB to recover the loss?(just kidding) The answer is My Sarannah Belle $20k claim was a ridiculous bargain & both old & new connections know too well. Same to connections for Summer In Bali who was second to MSB in last maiden race. So Andy Serling doesn’t have to scratch his bald eagle head to exclaim why the 7-8 double was $9.10. The sad fact is I had your pick(& thank you) but missed out all the action that was going to happen in the following race :(( Major fail to have this slipped under the radar.

  17. Mike

    First your math is wrong. look based at 5-1 but many plays should be higher odds/less to bet/also if your selections go 0-30 your not betting the right selections.but assuming 5-1 let’s see 10 in a row losers

    1-100-20bet 2-120-24bet 3-144-29bet 4-173-35bet 5-208-42bet 6-250-50bet 7-300-60bet 8-360-72bet 9-432-86bet 10-518-104bet totat bet 522 so far at o-10. Next bet 124 if a win paying 12.00, return is 768.Total bet 666, total return 768 equal plus 102. Now drop back to 100 base.
    Now apply some picks that go off 10,20,30-1 and you invest a lot less. Also on the 11th bet as I show on the example you bet $124. Hardly going too be the odds at NYRA, which is the only track I do this at. 10 winners out of a hundred is only 10% I average about 12% with my bets. I uses separate bankrolls for separate investments. It increases my profit 5 fold. The methods of selection are important but endless. It’s hard to fully explain in this format, but I think you can understand better. I was thinking of adding your picks for a new investment for me. I have 4 current.

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