Wednesday, September 16
Race 1: Maiden Claiming $40,000 at 6 furlongs for NY-bred 2-year-olds
2 – Not So Quiet Man
Not So Quiet Man (#2) is much the horse to beat after facing far better competition in his first two starts at Monmouth. Not So Quiet Man’s debut was won by Percolator, who was eventually 2nd in the Sanford, and last time he dueled with Awesome Slew early and that one returned to finish a good 4th in the Sanford. Not So Quiet Man looks like a very likely winner, and may not even go favored.
$25 Win 2
Race 4: Claiming $12,500 at 6 furlongs for fillies and mares
7 – Heaven’s Touch
Greek Life is the horse to beat and Linda Rice has good numbers first off the claim with her dirt sprinters. However I’m interested in Heaven’s Touch (#7) at a better price, mostly because David Jacobson has off the charts good numbers with horses like her. Over the last 5 years, David Jacobson is 48-for-119 (40%) ($2.68 ROI) first off the claim with dirt sprinters in for a $20,000 tag or less in New York.
$15 Win 7
$5 Exacta Box 7,8
$2 Exacta Key Box 7 with 2,3,6
Race 5: Optional Claiming $40,000/N2X at 6 furlongs on the turf for NY-breds
7 – Lord of Love
Latigo Trail is obviously as loose as can be, but I don’t totally trust him to take full advantage of this situation since he’s never really shown a great deal of finishing power regardless of pace in the past. The one I want to run him down is Lord of Love (#7). Lord of Love has quietly been rounding into very good form lately. His race on July 26th at Saratoga makes him very competitive here and last time he ran deceptively well trying to come up a somewhat dead rail on a surface that he doesn’t really care for.
$15 Win 7
$5 Exacta Box 5,7
$2 Exacta Key Box 7 with 1,2,4
Race 6: Claiming $25,000N2L at 6 furlongs on the turf for fillies and mares
4 – Eta Carinae
I have to go back to Eta Carinae (#4), who I had picked in a tougher spot last before that was washed off the turf. Her lone turf start is better than it appears since she got a subtly uncomfortable trip and may have been prevented from showing her true turf ability. As you go through this race, there aren’t too many to be afraid of outside of an untrustworthy Hillaryinthehouse so I’ll take my chances with Eta Carinae on the class drop.
$10 Win/Place 4 (Payout: $44.00)
$5 Exacta Box 4,9
Race 8: Optional Claiming $40,000/N2X at 1 1/16 miles on the turf for NY-breds
3 – Changewilldoyagood
While I respect Ocala Jim on the drop in class, you have to be somewhat concerned about the lack of pace. Ex Ex Ex looks completely loose with other possible pace players drawn outside, but I just don’t think he’s good enough. I’m going to hope that Joel Rosario takes advantage of his good draw and rides Changewilldoyagood (#3) for position out of the gate. Changewilldoyagood really isn’t that slow early and could be in a cozy stalking position early. I’m interested in him finally getting a chance to race over a truly firm turf course, which he’s yet to encounter so far through four turf starts. A fair price would be around 8/1.
$10 Win/Place 3
$5 Exacta Box 3,7