Thursday, July 9
Race 1: Maiden Claiming $40,000 at seven furlongs on the turf for NY-breds
5 – O’Bear
2 – Kitstrickortreat
6 – Risky Sour
I believe this race presents some real opportunities. You’re supposed to play against A Marked Man, who is good enough to win, but has had his chances, and isn’t getting better. Momma’s Mark is OK, and River Knight is logical if he repeats his last. However I see some far more interesting horses at larger prices.
Let’s start with Risky Sour (#6). It’s hard to take his rider, but if this horse is fortunate enough to actually get a decent ride, I believe he’s good enough to win. Risky Sour really wasn’t given a fair chance by his rider in either of his last two turf starts.
My top pick is O’Bear (#5). This horse has actually run decently on turf despite some less than favorable setups. Last time, just when he was in the midst of his rally, he was forced to steady sharply behind a stopping runner, and lost all his momentum. For a big horse like him, it’s hard to recover from that. I like this rider switch to Kendrick Carmouche and I think O’Bear has a big chance here.
Finally, for the more adventurous players out there, how about Kitstrickortreat (#2)? I know this horse has shown nothing on the track, but he was previously trained by his owner, who hasn’t won a race training horses since 1996. Now he’s in the capable hands of Pat Reynolds and Kitstrickortreat might not actually have to improve as much as you might think to be a major factor in this race.
$15 Win/Place 5
$10 Win/Place 2
$10 Win/Place 6
$2 Exacta Key Box 2,5,6