Thursday, June 18
Race 4: Maiden Claiming $40,000 at seven furlongs on the turf for NY-breds
5 – Risky Sour
10 – Freudian Lights
You’re not supposed to take A Marked Man, who has been very disappointing since the layoff. I’m interested in a couple of long shots.
How about Risky Sour (#5)? His initial turf start at the end of last year actually wasn’t that bad and last time he got a pretty lazy ride, yet still was running on at the end and galloped out past the entire field after the wire.
The other horse that interests me is Freudian Lights (#10). His two sprint efforts came against much tougher company albeit on dirt. He doesn’t have much turf on the dam’s side, but he is a Freud. I also think this is a subtly positive trainer switch.
$15 Win 5
$10 Win 10
$4 Exacta Key Box 5 with 1,8,10
$2 Exacta Key Box 10 with 1,8
Race 6: Allowance N1X at six furlongs on the turf for fillies and mares
8 – Justoneofakind
This race is tricky because there really isn’t much pace on paper unless you think Big N Toasty’s route speed will translate to sprints. I wish there was going to be more pace for her, but I have to bet Justoneofakind (#8), who may have the best turn of foot, and was compromised by being too far back last time and steadying briefly in upper stretch.
My Cara Mia is the main danger, and Paris Bikini’s speed makes her dangerous, though I feel she’ll be overbet. Justoneofakind should offer value so I’ll hope she works out a trip.
$15 Win 8
$4 Exacta Key Box 8 with 4,5,6
Race 7: Claiming $40,000 at one mile on the turf for three year-olds
7 – Blazing Truth
This one is all about Blazing Truth (#7), and any price over 6/5 would be very fair. He ran against much tougher last time and actually didn’t disgrace himself. Now he drops into a realistic spot and should be the controlling speed.
$25 Win 7 (Payout: $55.00)
Race 9: Maiden Special Weight at 1 1/8 miles on the turf for NY-breds
9 – Space Oddity
I was interested in Space Oddity (#9) on Saturday before he was scratched, but this is actually an easier spot. Space Oddity’s lone turf race was very good. He almost won despite going 4-wide around both turns over Aqueduct’s unforgiving turf course. The layoff is a minor concern, but I just feel that Space Oddity is better than this field his class should carry him through.
Behind him, I’ll focus on Talladega (#6), who may show more speed with blinkers and has stepped forward since his return, as well as Bugle Blues, the often overbet Brother O’Connell, and Scooby Dude.
$25 Win 9
$5 Exacta 9 with 2,3,7