Thursday, April 16
Race 1: Claiming $20,000 at six furlongs for three year-old fillies
6 – Gethot Stayhot
Patria Querida (#1) is obviously the horse to beat. She can rate off what should be a fast, contested pace and has run fast enough to win. Nevertheless, I see an equally intriguing alternative at a much bigger price. Gethot Stayhot (#6) looks slower on paper, but her running style fits this race, and she never had a chance last time when chasing wide against much tougher competition. Now John Toscano places her in a realistic spot for the first time since claiming her and I think she’s going to run an improved race.
$15 Win 6 (Payout: $75.00)
$5 Exacta Box 1,6
Race 2: Optional Claiming $100,000/C at six furlongs
5 – Moments Notiz
I get that Piquant ran very well last time, but that race came up oddly fast and his prior efforts aren’t good enough. I want to see him do it again. I prefer the Jacobson duo and took Moments Notiz (#5) on top.
Jacobson ran Moments Notiz out of town for much of last year to take advantage of starter allowance conditions, but he’s always run his best races in New York. For example, three back despite lackluster surrounding form, he put in a huge effort when returned to Aqueduct in race where he was best after a less than ideal trip. I also think it’s a positive sign that Moments Notiz is not in for a tag. Jacobson certainly isn’t usually afraid to lose one for $100k.
So Brilliant (#4) lost all chance at the start last time and has a right to run better here, but all the layoff lines are a concern.
$20 Win 5
$5 Exacta Box 4,5
Race 8: Maiden Claiming $40,000 at 1 1/16 miles on the turf for NY-breds
14 – Send It In
11 – Sunny Aftermoon
I’m taking a shot with some first time turfers, but I respect the horses with proven turf form: Starago (#6), Blue Shark (#7), and Lotza Heat (#10).
If Send It In (#14) draws in off the also-eligible list, he’s the one I want most. He’s by a solid turf influence in Big Brown and his dam is out of a multiple turf stakes winner in Argentina. Send It In was off slowly in his debut and very green through the stretch. Pletcher is actually 4-for-12 ($3.70 ROI) going dirt-to-turf in maiden claiming turf routes with horses making their second starts.
The other first time turfer I’m interested in is Sunny Aftermoon (#11). His dam only ran on turf and a couple of his siblings were clearly better on turf than dirt. Notional is a decent enough turf sire. I know that Sunny Aftermoon has done no running as of yet in the afternoon, but he’s definitely bred to take to the turf and should be a huge price.
$15 Win/Place 14
$2 Exacta Key Box 14 with 2,6,7,10