Saturday, April 11
Race 3: Claiming $10,000 at six furlongs
4 – Southbeachsandy
Obviously Luckysdream (#1) is the horse to beat, but he’s hard to trust as he continues to plummet in class. I’m going to take a small shot against him with Southbeachsandy (#4). I know this horse doesn’t exactly love to win races but his two best efforts recently have been his sprints, and now he gets back to that distance today, while receiving a rider upgrade.
$15 Win 4
$10 Exacta 1-4
Race 4: Maiden Special Weight at one mile
6 – Frenchman Bay
I suppose Performance Bonus (#4) is the horse to beat, but I do have some concerns about possible distance limitations. I’ve landed on Frenchman Bay (#6), who made some subtle strides over the winter at Gulfstream, and now returns to New York for Jimmy Jerkens, whose horses often take a step forward in their initial starts back up north after wintering in Florida. Good Pick Nick (#5) is another player who will take some money, but doesn’t he need to improve on his Tampa form? I suppose he’s not impossible.
$15 Win 6
$5 Exacta Box 4,6
$2 Exacta Key Box 6 with 5,9,11
Race 8: The Top Flight Handicap (G3) at 1 1/8 miles for fillies and mares
2 – House Rules
3 – Joint Return
This all about House Rules (#2). I’m not totally convinced that 1 1/8 miles is her best distance, but it probably doesn’t matter as she’s just faster than the others. However, if you’re going to throw one more horse into the mix, take a look at Joint Return (#3). She was improving towards the end of her 2014 campaign, which closed out with her getting a wide against-the-bias trip in the Cotillion. If some of these are staggering late, Joint Return could easily get into the trifecta at a fair price; distance is not an issue for her.
$20 Exacta 2-3
$10 Win/Place 3
Race 9: Maiden Special Weight at seven furlongs for NY-bred three year-old fillies
8 – Tricky Zippy
I’m not trying to beat Tricky Zippy (#8). This field is softer than the one she faced last time, and she has every right to take a step forward in her second start back from the layoff. I still think this 3/4-sister to Eye Luv Lulu might turn into a decent NY-bred.
$30 Win 8 (Payout: $79.50)
$10 Exacta 8 with 5,7
$5 Exacta 8 with 1,3,4,9 (Payout: $85.50)