Wednesday, April 1
Race 1: Claiming $20,000 at one mile for fillies and mares
5 – Seven Stars
Dropdowns Ginny’s Grey and Bounty Pink are the horses to beat, but I don’t quite trust either to show up with top efforts. Instead, I’ve landed on Seven Stars (#5). I know she needs to improve a bit, but Chip Dutrow is capable of doing just that. She’s not a sprinter and the jockey didn’t ask her for her best through the stretch last time. Seven Stars should be racing closest to Seven Dreams early and I’m hoping she can use her superior stamina to overtake that foe. The price should be decent.
$15 Win 5
$5 Exacta Box 2,5
Race 2: Maiden Claiming $25,000 at 6 1/2 furlongs for NY-breds
2 – Devilish Grin
9 – Mauro and Jesus
I don’t like Our Posse at all as the favorite in the second race. I know he had a trip last time, but that speed figure he was assigned in his debut looks totally phony in retrospect–horses exiting that race have consistently underperformed. Instead, I prefer Devilish Grin (#2), who stayed on well after racing wide last time, and Mauro and Jesus (#9), who faced tougher at Laurel.
$15 Win 2
$10 Win 9 (Payout: $85.00)
$4 Exacta Box 2,9
Race 6: Maiden Special Weight at one mile for NY-breds
7 – Overawe
I prefer Overawe (#7), who actually didn’t run all that badly last time despite his rider losing the irons in the first eighth of a mile. However, this is a tough maiden race, in which Woodford Pine is a major threat to his stablemate, and well-bred Pioneer of Wifi goes out for Michael Dilger, who does spectacular work with first time starters on dirt.
$20 Win 7
$5 Exacta Key Box 7 with 2,3
Race 7: Claiming $40,000 at one mile for three year-olds
3 – Cement Job
Marine One is way the horse to beat, but I have to take a small shot with Cement Job (#3), who got a ridiculous trip last time. Cement Job’s debut was actually okay, and if he can build on that I believe he can be a factor here at a generous price.
$10 Win 3
$5 Exacta Box 3,4
Race 8: Optional Claiming $100,000/C at one mile
1A – Three Alarm Fire
I’m always willing to be somewhat forgiving of poor efforts over Gulfstream’s main track, so I don’t want to be too hard on Three Alarm Fire (#1A) for his losses there. His one-turn races in New York make him the horse to beat and I’m hoping he gets back to them.
$25 Win 1
Race 9: Maiden Claiming $40,000 at one mile for NY-breds
2 – Freudian Lights
In the finale, I want to take a shot with Freudian Lights (#2) on the class drop. He has faced much better fields and gets a positive rider switch for this. G R’s Giant, Colorado Grandslam, and Jacob’s Here are also major contenders, but I think Freudian Lights will offer the best value.
$15 Win 2
$4 Exacta Key Box 2 with 3,5,8