Sunday, March 22
Race 3: The Stymie at 1 1/8 miles
4 – Turco Bravo
Do I think Turco Bravo (#4) is the most likely winner, or even the 2nd most likely winner of this race? No, of course not. However he is easily going to be the longest shot on the board, and it’s not as if he’s without a chance against this group. He gets a huge rider upgrade and I like that he’s been able to place himself closer to the pace in recent races. I respect North Slope, but I don’t yet trust him to put two good races back-to-back, and I’ve read that this race is merely a prep for Vyjack, who is apparently targeting routes again. Micromanage is a major threat if he can overcome the pace, but is he really so much more likely to win than Turco Bravo that he’d deserve to be a third, or even a quarter, of the price of my selection? I don’t think so.
$15 Win 4 (Payout: $162.00)
$4 Exacta Key Box 4 with 1,2,3
Race 4: Maiden Special Weight at one mile and 70 yards for fillies and mares
5 – Say Cin Cin
Dickinson and The Road Not Taken figure to take the most play, and rightfully so. They both have displayed the potential to to ultimately turn into nice fillies, but today’s distance is a question that each of them still have to answer. I’m taking a shot with Say Cin Cin (#5). Say Cin Cin needed a few races to get fit, but she ran very well last time. After getting bumped and squeezed back to last at the start, she made a long, sustained rally down the backstretch and around the far turn. While she was never getting to the winner, she was still coming on relentlessly through the stretch. There may not have been much behind her, but she’s moving in the right direction and I think she’s a threat to upset.
$15 Win 5
$5 Exacta 6,8 with 5
Race 5: Allowance N1X at six furlongs for fillies and mares
4 – Bossy Saratoga
Unless Court Dancer is aggressively ridden early, Bossy Saratoga (#4) is going to be on a clear lead, and I think that could be enough to put her in the winner’s circle. I thought she ran deceptively well last time, involved every step of the way while racing off the rail in a race that collapsed late. Her prior race is a throwout given her trip, and I think she has a big chance to upset both favorites to her inside at what should be a fair price.
$20 Win 4
$5 Exacta Key Box 4 with 1,3 (Payout: $62.00)
Race 6: Claiming $10,000 at one mile and 70 yards
3 – Hoopskirt
I admit that Hoopskirt (#3) is a bit of a guess here, but this is a race where I just don’t want to bet anyone else. She actually didn’t run that badly against a tougher field sprinting last time, and she’s been successful routing in the past. Maybe it just took her a little while to get fit off the layoff, but I think she’s worth taking a shot with at odds of 10/1 or greater.
$10 Win 3
$4 Exacta 6,7,8 with 3
Race 8: Allowance N1X at six furlongs for NY-breds
8 – Jack’s R Wild
Lulu Rocks is the best horse in this race, but he is up against what figures to be an unfavorable pace scenario. Ride a Cat and Spango are very fast early so I doubt that Lulu Rocks will be able to outrun them. Lulu Rocks should be able to stalk and put away that pair, but he will still have to hold off some decent closers.
I just cannot resist the rider switch on Jack’s R Wild (#8). I know this horse’s overall record is tough to look at, but he actually does have some ability, and has put in good late runs sprinting on occasion. If he’s going to make an impact at this level, today is the day.
$15 Win 8
$5 Exacta Box 8,10
$2 Exacta 1,2,3,7,9 with 8
Race 9: Maiden Special Weight at six furlongs for NY-bred three year-old fillies
5 – Tricky Zippy
Obviously the two inside horses are deserving of respect, but I’m more interested in Tricky Zippy (#5) at a bit of a price. Her debut was a really solid effort and I don’t think the Beyer speed figure she was assigned tells the whole story. That was a fast pace and Sandra is a decent NY-bred filly. It’s hard for any 2 year-old to debut at seven furlongs and I thought she showed ability that day. She’s a 3/4-sister to Eye Luv Lulu, so the pedigree is there, and Carlos Martin has good numbers with layoffs of this type.
$20 Win 5
$5 Exacta Key Box 5 with 1,2,11