Today’s card features many intriguing races, hence the unusually large number of selections from me. I don’t feel terribly confident about anything today, but more than a few of these races appear ripe for upsets. Hopefully we can catch one.
Sunday, March 15
Race 2: Maiden Claiming $16,000 at 5 1/2 furlongs
3 – Yes I’m True
Of course To Erin Again can wire the field at a short price, but this feels like a spot to explore some more interesting alternatives. I’ll try Yes I’m True (#3), who turns back and gets a huge rider switch. That’s enough for me.
$10 Win 3
$2 Exacta 4,5,7,8 with 3
Race 3: Allowance N1X at one mile and 70 yards for NY-breds
2 – Market Conduct
6 – Fleeting
Market Conduct (#2) is WAY the horse to beat. Behind him, I’ll try to get Fleeting (#6) into the trifecta. I thought Fleeting ran very well last time after a wide run around the first turn. He made two distinct moves during the race, which isn’t easy to do. He’s continuing to improve, and I prefer him to horses like Giantinthemoonlite and Lehigh Five, who both figure to take money.
$8 Trifecta 2 with 6 with 3,4,5,7
$4 Trifecta 2 with 3,4,5,7 with 6 (Payout: $204.00)
(if Fleeting is around 15/1 greater…
$10 Win 6)
Race 5: Claiming $20,000 at six furlongs for NY-breds
6 – Wild Finish
With so much speed signed on, I can’t resist Wild Finish (#6). I know he looks a bit slow on paper, but you can forgive his last as he was racing on a dead rail that day. Wild Finish has actually run some of his better races over wet tracks in the past.
$20 Win 6 (Payout: $73.00)
$4 Exacta Key Box 6 with 5,7 (Payout: $50.00)
Race 6: Maiden Special Weight at one mile and 70 yards for three year-olds
1 – S. S. Minnow
Perhaps I’m trying to get too creative here, since both Money Multiplier and Arbitrator appear to be pretty solid. Nevertheless I need to try S. S. Minnow (#1) again. This horse was eliminated at the start of his debut. With a clean break today, I expect him to be sent. S. S. Minnow is bred to be fast and there isn’t an abundance of early speed in this race. I’m hoping he can take them a long way up front.
$15 Win 1
$5 Exacta 2,3,6 with 1
Race 7: Claiming $25,000N3L at six furlongs
6 – Pegasus T
The horse that I was most interested in was scratched, but after re-handicapping this race, I’ve found another long shot idea. There is very little speed left in this race, and I think that could make Pegasus T (#6) a threat on the front end. He is supposed to be sent from the gate to clear this field early. He’s certainly fast enough to do so. Dyker Beach and the other Pegasus (Red) are very logical, but I think Pegasus T could get a big piece of the purse if he’s ridden correctly.
$10 Win 6
$4 Exacta Key Box 6 with 1,7
Race 8: The Cicada at six furlongs for three year-old fillies
4 – Noble and a Beauty
I gave a long look to the alternatives, but ultimately I couldn’t bring myself to pick against Noble and a Beauty (#4). Her last race was too good and if she repeats it, I think she’ll win today. Overprepared has a chance, but Pletcher’s turnback numbers are poor. Specifically, Pletcher is 1 for 16 turning three year-olds back in distance on the inner track over the past 5 years.
$8 Trifecta 4 with 1,6 with 1,2,6
$4 Trifecta 4 with 2 with 1,6 (Payout: $109.00)
Race 9: Maiden Claiming $25,000 at six furlongs for NY-bred fillies and mares
9 – Rice and Beans
Agate is logical, but I’m equally interested in the other maiden special weight dropper, Rice and Beans (#9), who will be a huge price. These connections are hard to take, to say the least, but Rice and Beans has run fast enough to win and may offer significant value.
$10 Win 9
$5 Exacta Box 8,9
$2 Exacta 1,3,7 with 9