Saturday, December 20
Race 8: The Tropical Park Derby at 1 1/16 miles on the turf for three year-olds
3 – Ironicus
IRONICUS (#3) should finally get an honest pace to run into and I believe that he’s better than his recent Beyer speed figures suggest. In both of his New York races since returning from the layoff he faced unfavorable pace scenarios, and he actually ran quite well each time to make up as much ground as he did. Today, as long as Rosario can work out a trip, I think he’s the horse to beat.
$20 Win 3
Race 9: Optional Claiming $35,000/N1X at 1 7/16 miles on the turf
14 – Crown Thy Good
CROWN THY GOOD (#14) is one of the few runners in this large field that is proven at marathon distances. I also think that the Beyer speed figure he received for his last race is on the low side. If you take the Beyer at face value, then you’re willing to believe that the third and fourth place finishers in that race—both reliably consistent runners—regressed by 10 to 15 points. I’m more willing to believe that the winner, Innovation Economy, broke through with an outstanding performance that may have been underrated, and that the performances of those who finished behind him should be upgraded accordingly. The post position is of some concern today, but I think Crown Thy Good will be a decent price. Today might be the day to make a score with this improving horse.
$15 Win 14