Saturday, July 26
Race 1: Maiden Special Weight at 1 3/16 miles on the turf for fillies and mares
5 – Rapid Repair
3 – Palestrina
I believe that RAPID REPAIR (#5) can wire this field as she gets back on turf. Her pedigree indicates that this is supposed to be her preferred surface and I would not hold her career debut against her. I also felt that PALESTRINA (#3) was interesting as she gets another chance on the grass. For whatever reason, this filly did absolutely no running in her first couple of starts, before putting things together in the fall. Her pedigree screams turf and perhaps she’s just a much better racehorse now. I have to try her at a big price.
$15 Win 5
$10 Win 3
$5 Exacta Box 3,5
Race 6: Claiming $35,000 1 1/2 miles on the turf
4 – Knights Nation
KNIGHTS NATION (#4) has proven marathon form and drops into a realistic spot after facing much tougher fields recently. He also should be able to get a forward early position in a race lacking much pace.
$10 Win 4
Race 7: Allowance N1X at six furlongs
3 – Celebrated Talent
This is a very tough race. I landed on CELEBRATED TALENT (#3), who ran very well at this meet last year and should appreciate this six-furlong distance. Kiaran McLaughlin has excellent numbers off layoffs of this type, winning with 18 of 61 starters returning from 180+ day layoffs in dirt sprints, for a $2.94 ROI. I’ll bet him to win at what should be a fair price and will use him with The Big Beast (#1), Cost Affective (#6), and Jimmy Connors (#8).
$15 Win 3
$5 Exacta 1,6,8 with 3
Race 8: The Amsterdam (G2) at 6 1/2 furlongs for three year-olds
5 – Tiznowforamerica
This horse was originally my second choice, but after the scratch of Noble Moon, I’m now picking him on top. There is surprisingly little early speed in this race, which is why I think TIZNOWFORAMERICA (#5) might have a chance to step up. Captain Serious and Big Guy Ian are the two other runners that have some speed, but they’re drawn outside and I suspect that their riders are going to let Tiznowforamerica go on early. Tiznowforamerica’s last race came against weaker, but he earned a Beyer speed figure that suggests he can be competitive in this race with the right setup. I’m mildly against Coup de Grace, who has gotten great pace scenarios in his two stakes victories, and may be trying to close into softer fractions today. I’ll bet Tiznowforamerica to win and will use him with the logical Captain Serious (#8) in the exacta.
$10 Win 5
$5 Exacta Box 5,8
Race 10: The Jim Dandy (G2) at 1 1/8 miles for three year-olds
4 – Tonalist
2 – Legend
I’m sure you are all aware that I’m a huge fan of TONALIST (#4). I doubt that either he or Wicked Strong is fully cranked today, but Tonalist figures to have a pace advantage in a race lacking a clear frontrunner, and by most accounts has been training more strongly than his main rival coming into this race. The horse that I want to try to get into exactas or trifectas behind Tonalist is Legend (#2). He figures to lead them early and has run fast enough to get a piece of this. Shorter-priced plodders like Kid Cruz and Commanding Curve may have trouble closing into this race.
$25 Win 4
$10 Exacta 4-2
$5 Trifecta 4 with 2,7 with 2,7