Race 7: Allowance N1X at one mile for NY-bred fillies and mares
While I’m not thrilled to see the same rider back on MLLE. MINUIT (#3) again this afternoon, I’ll hope he learned from his mistake last time. Rarely do you see such an egregious tactical error as the one Wilmer Garcia made in the third race on March 24th. (Watch the replay.) Mlle. Minuit was sitting in good position tracking the first flight of horses leaving the backstretch, but for some unknown reason, Garcia began whipping and driving her at the entrance to the far turn. Mlle. Minuit made a three- to four-wide run around the far turn to reach the front by the top of the stretch, but she had expended far too much energy in the process and understandably flattened out late. If anyone ever decides to write a dictionary of horse racing jargon, this race could be cited as a perfect example of a “premature move.”
I don’t think it’s unreasonable to say that if Mlle. Minuit had received a patient ride and made one late run she could have been the winner by a length or two and would have run a Beyer speed figure of close to 70. A repeat of that effort will make her very tough to beat here.
I’m mildly against the likely favorite, Vaid, whose last Beyer speed figure is a little hard for me to believe. If she does indeed run that well again, I’ll have to let her beat me. I’ll bet MLLE. MINUIT to win, but will also box her in the exacta with a long shot who I think has an outside chance. SHE’S ALWAYS HOT (#2) has been steadily rounding back into form over her past couple of races. Her most recent start is better than it looks as she was steadied at a critical point in the stretch and may have finished second otherwise. I think it’s a very positive sign that Allard has brought her back to New York to run in a protected spot. I’m hoping that there will be a fair early pace ahead of these two closers since Platinum Bombshell and Lady Luciano both want to be forwardly placed.
$20 Win 3 (WINNER; Payout: $69.00)
$4 Exacta Box 2,3
Race 9: Maiden Special Weight at 6 1/2 furlongs for NY-bred fillies and mares
If PRINCESS VIOLET (#11) takes a step forward off her debut run, as many of Mike Hushion’s second time starters tend to do, she is probably going to gallop home an easy winner. Part of me wishes that she had not been entered because there is filly racing here that I would really be looking forward to picking in any average New York-bred maiden race.
ALL LUV ME (#5) had a ton of trouble in her debut and ran like a horse who simply needed a race. (Watch the replay.) She broke a step slowly as she ducked in slightly at the start. However, the real trouble actually began a few strides later when the horses just to her outside crossed over to the rail and put her in a precariously tight position. She didn’t quite hit the rail, but she was forced to break stride and lose several lengths of position. Her rider started to ask her to pick it up exiting the backstretch and she was there for him instantly, moving up into contention right in behind the first flight of horses. However, again, she reacted poorly to being put into a tight spot and she backed up slightly on the turn. She angled out briefly, but then ducked in as her rider just lightly hand rode her to the finish.
I think there’s a good chance that this filly has some ability and she could greatly benefit from the addition of blinkers this afternoon. I know that it’s a tall order to ask any of these fillies to beat Princess Violet, but I can’t resist taking a shot with a horse like All Luv Me who may be a lot better than it appears on paper. I’ll bet her to win and will cover my bases by using her underneath the favorite in the exacta.