Aqueduct, Race 5: Allowance N1X at six furlongs for NY-bred fillies and mares
White Crane (#9) is the horse to beat based on her 2013 form, but her return earlier this month was pretty disappointing. She can win, but I’m a little wary of her. Agilion’s (#7) return to the races was perhaps marginally better, but I’ve never been much of a fan of her’s and she’s likely to be overbet with Eddie Kenneally as her trainer.
I’m taking a shot with Rub a Dubb Dubb (#5), who really isn’t that much slower than the two favorites in here and has had a couple of excuses in her last few races. Three back she was against the inside bias and then last time she sustained some hard bumps coming to the top of the stretch that sapped some of her momentum. She’s not the most likely winner, but I think her price commensurate to her actual chances of winning makes her a good play.
$10 Win 5 (WINNER; Payout: $105.00)
$2 Exacta 7/9 with 5
Aqueduct, Race 6: Maiden Special Weight at one mile for NY-bred three year-old fillies
Shades of Indygo’s (#4) race two back would surely beat this field. I don’t know what happened last time, but that effort was so poor that I have trouble believing it’s an accurate representation of her ability. Two back she actually beat Fee and Sugar, who came back to win that December 28th race in which Shades of Indygo flopped. She’s no sure thing, but I think she’s the right horse to play.
$10 Win 4
Aqueduct, Race 7: Claiming $12,500 at six furlongs for fillies and mares
I don’t see how Seven Dreams (#7) can lose this race. She’s had more success sprinting in the past and is actually coming into this race in very good form. Last time, despite running at a distance that is farther than her best, she made a wide closing move on a track that was not conducive to that running style. There should be enough pace in this race to setup her late kick as she turns back in distance. Odds of over 8-5 would be good value.
$20 Win 7 (WINNER; Payout: $60.00)
Aqueduct, Race 8: Optional Claiming $75,000/C at one mile for NY-bred fillies and mares
Miss Da Point (#4) is in the best form of her career and ran extremely well last time pressing a fast pace and holding off the closers late in a race that otherwise collapsed. I see no reason why she won’t continue rolling along to another victory today and her chances were only helped by the scratch of likely speed Princess Mara.
Hot Splash needs to be discussed as she enters this race off a blowout victory against softer company. She was powerful in victory that day and a repeat of the effort would surely make a player in here. I’m not way against her, but I have my doubts, especially since she may be a shorter price than Miss Da Point, who I feel is a more likely winner.
I will also make a secondary wager on Hot Rendezvous (#2), who had major excuses two back when she broke slowly and then clipped heels on the far turn when in the midst of her rally. The jury is still out on whether she is actually a two-turn horse, but you’d have to think that she could have run a Beyer in at least the high-70s without the trouble in the Judy Soda. She probably won’t be lower than the fourth choice in here and I think she has a legitimate chance to win. I’ll also box her with Miss Da Point in the exacta.
$15 Win 4
$10 Win 2 (WINNER; Payout: $106.00)
$4 Exacta Box 2/4
Aqueduct, Race 9: Claiming $20,000N2L at six furlongs
Acigarisjustacigar (#1) is coming into this race in deceptively good form. After breaking his maiden, he was stepped up to race over his head in an optional claimer against Marriedtothemusic where he clearly had no chance. Then last time, when back at the right class level, he encountered trouble on the backstretch and was forced to steady out of position. Stealth Steed is in good form for Jacobson, but one could argue that Acigarisjustacigar would have beaten him with a clean trip last time. The other likely favorite, Ballybrit, ran better than it appears last time when beating the bias, but I want to see him do it again against tougher company.
$10 Win 1