Race 2: Optional Claiming $14,000/N1X at one mile for NY-bred fillies and mares
One lucrative trainer angle that I’ve recently come across is Dominic Galluscio running horses back first time off the claim after a brief freshening. Over the past five years, horses that he has claimed and freshened up for 45 to 75 days have won first time out for him 39% of the time (12/31) with an ROI of $4.71. Also, if you restrict the sample to the past two years, he’s 9-for-22 with a $5.77 ROI.
Quiet Sunshine (#5) fits this pattern and I look for her to get back to some of her better races in her first start for this barn. I think this distance will suit her and she also may be the controlling speed.
$10 Win 5
Race 4: Maiden Special Weight at one mile
This is a bit of a guess, but I think Secret Bid (#12) could improve getting back to dirt. I like that Shug entered him as a main track only runner despite the fact that he significantly improved on turf this year. His only dirt race came in a sprint as a two year-old before he was equipped with Lasix. I’m tempted to just disregard it because his pedigree suggests dirt should be his preferred surface.
$10 Win 12 (WINNER; Payout: $43.00)
Race 7: Maiden Special Weight at 5 1/2 furlongs for NY-bred two year-old fillies
Lemme Rock (#9) raced in the two-path in her debut on a day when you wanted to be on the rail. Then last time she was completely clobbered at the start and then sustained a three-wide trip thereafter on a day when the rail was even stronger. I think she’s a lot better than she looks and she may be completely overlooked on the board due to the presence of some attractive firsters that I’m not sure I trust.
$10 Win 9
Race 9: The Go For Wand (G2) at one mile for fillies and mares
I want to go with the three year-olds. Street Girl (#4) ran a fantastic race in the Cotillion and obviously had no chance in the Breeders’ Cup. The respective trainer and rider switches are too significant for me to ignore. The only real drawback is her deep closing running style, but I think the one-turn mile will suit her.
I also give Ol Donyo (#7) at a chance at a much bigger price. Her race two back was very strong and she may have just found the extra half-furlong a bit too far last time. Wedding Toast, who beat her that day and will be favored in the Comely tomorrow, is probably better than any of the fillies or mares she meets today. There’s not much speed in this race outside of Fantasy of Flight so I would expect Ol Donyo to use her advantageous post position to be right up on the pace early and get the jump on the closers.
$15 Win 4
$10 Win 7