It’s been a busy weekend and I don’t have much time to write, so I’ll keep this brief. We’re sticking to Aqueduct today:
Race 2: Maiden Claiming $40,000-$30,000 at six furlongs
I’m not enamored with any of the horses who are recently coming out of those Dattts Happy races. I’ll instead take a shot with one dropping down from maiden special weight company. Baltic Coast (#1) was sent hard early last time and battled for the lead with the winner before fading. He’s got some pedigree as he’s a half brother to stakes performers Danuta and Folk. I’m hoping for some second out improvement and an aggressive ride.
$5 Win 1
Race 3: Optional Claiming $75,000/N1X at one mile and 70 yards for NY-bred three year-olds
“Horse to Watch” The Brothers Rap (#2) will be at best third choice in the wagering here, yet I believe he’s the most likely winner. You need to see the replay of his race last time to understand the regression in his Beyer speed figure. The pace was slow which contributed to the unimpressive final time. But The Brothers Rap go into a great deal of trouble coming out of the backstretch and had to steady behind Alcolite while losing any realistic chance. He still re-rallied nicely to get up into fourth, but the winner sprinted home after setting those soft fractions.
I don’t think a route will be any problem for this horse. He has plenty of stamina on his dam’s side and should get a solid pace to run into here between Goodtolook and Readthesmokesignal battling for the lead. It’s also worth noting that he comes out of that extremely live allowance race two back that saw Go Get the Basil and Lucci the Lion come back to win and Escapefromreality run second in the Withers Stakes yesterday. This horse also gets a major jockey switch to Junior Alvarado and presents excellent value.
$20 Win 2
Race 6: Maiden Special Weight at six furlongs for NY-bred three year-olds
Thnxtomyuncle (#3) put in a very impressive late run in his debut after taking a long time to get into stride. He gets a nice jockey switch to Jose Ortiz and is confidently stepped up in class. Glowing Ember is a formidable foe, but Thnxtomyuncle should offer the better value and in my book ran the better race first time out. It’s also worth noting that the first, second, and fourth place finishers out of that debut race have all come back to win and improve their speed figures. My “Horse to Watch” Stone Rocks may be able to get a piece, but is up against it in this better than average NY-bred maiden race.
$15 Win 3
Race 7: Starter Optional Claiming $50,000 at one mile and 70 yards
There is reason to believe that both Romancing the Gold (#6) and Magic Harbor (#8) will improve significantly off their recent claims. Romancing the Gold ran very well last time battling outside on the “gold rail” day and Magic Harbor just looks like a horse that’s rounding into form while falling into a hot barn. I can see some others contending, but those are the only two I’m really intrigued by.
$5 Exacta Box 6/8