There’s really only one race today that I’m even remotely interested in playing and it’s the lone remaining turf affair.
Race 7: Optional Claiming $25,000/N2X at 1 1/16 miles on the turf
I’ve basically been following “Horse to Watch” list member Sandyinthesun (#7) for his entire career and recently have noticed some things in his races that give me indication he’s moving forward. I placed him on the list for his effort on September 8th, a day when horses were just not making up ground on either surface due to high winds. Yet Sandyinthesun, under 10-pound bug Dylan Davis, was able to work his way through the pack to get up for third at huge odds. Next time out, he dropped too far back behind a slow pace and couldn’t make an impact. But in his most recent start, the course was yielding, he got a decent pace to run into, and a positive rider switch to Dylan’s sister, Jackie Davis, which all helped Sandyinthesun get up to win at odds of 17-1. The water’s get much, much deeper today, but I’m not totally convinced Sandyinthesun doesn’t have even better performances in him still. If you watch his last race, Jackie Davis had him held up in traffic for much of the way trying to find a clear seem to run through and didn’t find daylight until the last eighth of a mile. He could conceivably have won by much more.
Today, the course is yielding once again and there should be a strong early pace with the likes of Sneaky Kitten, Quick Money, and Image of Disco all pressing forward early. Sandyinthesun is probably going to be ignored in the wagering, but he’s getting his favorite type of turf course and if the favorites start to stagger in the final eighth of a mile, look for him to grind them down late. And it’s always nice to see former jockey Robbie Davis in the winner’s circle with the only horse in his stable.
$10 Win 7
[3:33 p.m. update] – Sandyinthesun completely failed to show up as Kharafa ran away from a field that looked to be pretty evenly matched on paper. The final time was suspiciously quick, which leads me to believe that the turf course was much firmer than the “yielding” rating might suggest.
I probably won’t have time to compose a full entry about tomorrow’s races, but I am handicapping Aqueduct as well as some of the Gulfstream card, so I’ll try to post some picks later tonight.