Race 8: The Riskaverse Stakes at one mile on the turf
I’m going to make the assumption that Dayatthespa will be overbet in this race so I’m picking against her. Don’t get me wrong; I think she is one of the likely winners. However, I can envision her going off at odds of around even money when she should probably be no less than 2-1. I was extremely impressed with Assateague’s (#1) last performance, her first start of the year. She had shown some promise as a two year-old, but really came out of the gate running last time and just never looked back. Left in her wake that day were Pianist and Kitty Wine, who came back to finish first and third, respectively, in another strong looking allowance race last week. I think this filly has just taken a huge step forward as a three year-old and has as much ability as any of these, including the favorite. She is certainly bred to get better with age and distance as she is a half-sister to Kindergarten Kid, who was not graded stakes placed until the age of five, and hails from that famous Courtly Dee family that has yielded Arch, Althea, Aldiza, and Atelier.
Furthermore, she is the only confirmed frontrunner in this race. Yes, Dayatthespa was on the lead last time in the Appalachian stakes, but I don’t think Chad Brown wishes that to be her preferred running style, so I expect her to stalk Assateague today. And really, what makes Dayatthespa so scary? She was all out to beat Regalo Mia two back and that filly is okay, but nothing special. Then last time she had that huge tactical advantage over Somali Lemonade and it’s not like that filly has gone one to be the force in this division that many expected she would. I’m not really afraid of Alaura Michele because I thought the Nani Rose was a weak race and the other closers like Peace Preserver and Heart of Destiny have something to prove. I see Assateague trying to open up on these early and I’m hoping she is classy and seasoned enough to hang on late.
BEST BET OF THE DAY: $20 Win 1 (ASSATEAGUE)
Some Other Quick Opinions:
Race 2: I think Situational Ethics (#9) had been facing markedly better horses in his last few starts and is taking a significant drop in class in here. There appears to be enough speed to ensure an honest pace and I like this horse to run them down late.
$10 Win 9
Race 4: The two strongest turf pedigrees belong to Double Tapped (#7), who is a half-sister to Paddy O’Prado, and Sensationalize (#8), whose dam won 6 of 18 turf starts and earned a 95 Beyer racing on the grass. I think they both should be bettable prices so I’ll use them on the win end.
$6 Win 7
$6 Win 8
Race 9: Into the Fray (#10) made his debut last fall going six furlongs on the turf at Belmont and actually ran quite well, especially for a Shug McGaughey firster, closing into a slow pace to just miss. After that he failed twice going long and was dropped into a claiming race that resulted in him being taken. Into the Fray greatly improved for the new connections and found a niche sprinting on the main track with his best race coming when he broke his maiden over the Polytrack at Keeneland. Now he gets back on turf and you could make the case that sprinting on turf is what he has wanted to do all along. If that is true, he will win this race. I’ll also throw a few bucks on Beer Is Good (#1), who ran well here at the end of July before getting beaten over a bog that he obviously hated. That bad last race may inflate his price more than is warranted, but he needs a top effort to beat my top selection and favored Partly Mocha.
$10 Win 10
$5 Win 1