Saratoga, Day 35

We’re into the final stretch. I’ve just barely been keeping my head above water for the past few weeks, so hopefully we can find enough opportunities during these final six days to pull solidly into positive territory by week’s end.

Wednesday, September 2

Saratoga

Race 2: Claiming $14,000N3L at 6 1/2 furlongs

5 – Mach Seven

I guess if Aleander runs back to his last two, he’s supposed to be tough to beat. However, I don’t really trust him or either half of the Asmussen entry. For that reason, I’m taking a shot with long shot Mach Seven (#5). I know Mach Seven’s a little slow, but he’s been running over his head in a few recent races and actually did okay at this level last time.

$10 Win/Place 5

 

Race 4: Maiden Special Weight at 6 furlongs for 2-year-old fillies

2 – Nickname

The second time starter that I want is Nickname (#2). While she didn’t have any kind of severe trouble in her debut, she was racing in what appeared to be one of the stronger two-year-old filly maiden heats of the meet. Asmussen’s second time starters are always dangerous here. J La Tache also ran well in her debut, but I get the feeling she was really ready to run first out. Firster Estelle, who is bred to be a runner, albeit going farther, and Sky My Sky, who couldn’t overcome a troubled start in her debut, are the others I’ll use.

$20 Win 2
$5 Exacta Key Box 2 with 1,3,7

 

Race 5: Maiden Claiming $40,000 at 5 1/2 furlongs on the turf for NY-bred fillies and mares

6 – Street Lass
9 – Honeychild

This is a very interesting race, which I believe is more wide-open than it may appear at first glance. Sure, Sanfiera can win, as can first time turfer Glare Ice, who actually has pedigree for the surface switch. But there are a couple others I want at bigger prices.

Street Lass (#6) interests me a great deal. I know these aren’t win-early connections (or really, win-ever connections) but this filly’s dam was a NY-bred turf stakes winner who netted over $360,000 during her career. It’s also worth noting that nearly all of her foals have preferred turf despite being by poor turf influence Ommadon, whereas Street Lass is by good turf sire Street Boss. That’s enough for me.

I’m also interested in Honeychild (#9), whose turf races have all come against maiden special weight company. I don’t think her recent form is quite as bad as it looks at first glance and she may have needed her return last time as a prep for this.

$10 Win/Place 6
$10 Win/Place 9
$2 Exacta Key Box 6,9 with 1,3,6,9

 

Race 6: Claiming $40,000N2L at one mile on the turf

6 – Baldonnel
9 – Dendrite

In the 6th, I’m not putting any significant funds towards trying to beat favored Baldonnel (#6). However I do have a crazy idea about a horse to use underneath: Dendrite (#9).

Hear me out on this one. This horse has had trouble finding the winner’s circle, but I can’t deny that his form since returning from layoff is way more encouraging than it appears on paper. Two back, he battled early with Foxhall Drive through fast fractions, and that one has come back out of that effort with two improved performances. Then last time Dendrite lost all chance in the opening stages when he was steadied back to last, and he actually did a but of running to get back into the race with a wide move on the far turn before flattening out. This distance is more appropriate and I think he could snag a piece at a gigantic price. Again, he’s not really a horse to use heavily on the win end, but throw him in underneath in your exactas and trifectas.

$5 Win/Place 9
$2 Trifecta 6 with 9 with ALL
$2 Trifecta 6 with ALL with 9

 

Race 9: Optional Claiming $40,000/N2X at 7 furlongs for NY-breds

5 – Onecats Chance

I have to play Saratoga-loving Onecats Chance (#5) on the turnback. There is a bit of pace in this race and he’s been effective closing around one-turn on occasion in the past. He’ll be a price, but he’s coming off one of his best races, which puts him in the mix.

$15 Win 5
$4 Exacta Key Box 5 with 1,3,9

 

Race 10: Claiming $40,000N2L at one mile on the turf

10 – Chunnel

In the finale, Dynamic Decision almost looks too easy. He has good recent form and drops out of a much tougher spot. Yet Casse’s runners haven’t exactly been overachieving at this meet and Leparoux has struggled to find the right trips. I know Trecastle looks like a viable alternative, but I really worry that a flat mile is just too short for him. Instead, I’m going for a bit of a price.

How about Chunnel (#10), whose turf races are okay, and appears to be in decent form as of late? His effort at Monmouth 3 back was fine and in his last turf race, he was compromised by a very wide trip against that slow pace set by Sleeping Giant. I’m not sure that this trainer switch is actually a negative and Lezcano sees fit to take the call. That’s enough for me.

$15 Win 10
$4 Exacta Key Box 10 with 4,5,9

 

Today’s Wagers: $254.00
Today’s Payouts: $0.00


Meet Total: +$281.25
ROI: $2.10

Saratoga, Day 32: Travers Day

image

Saturday, August 29 Saratoga Race 2: Maiden Special Weight at 6 furlongs for 2-year-olds 1 - Condominium There's a lot of guesswork to be done in these 2-year-old races, but I'll always be more comfortable relying on horses who have a … [Continue reading]